What the hell is happening in France?
Carolyn delivers an expert analysis.
I am going to attempt to discuss French politics today. I say “attempt” because not only am I not French, the system is complex and this whole month was bewildering. Yesterday’s election was “one of the most momentous in decades.” Why? Let’s try to break it down.
Let’s think of the French government as The Muppet Show (not too hard given the last few weeks).
The President (Macron) is Kermit. He is the one we see the most often and he is concerned with all the performers and the audience. He will be in office until 2027 and he can’t run again since he has reached the end of his term limit.
In the US and in other presidential republics, the President is both the head of state and the head of government. In France those roles are split between two people: The President is the head of state and the Prime Minister is the head of government.
Remember Scooter? He was always backstage herding the performers and trying to keep everything running on time. It was a thankless job and he never got any applause. He’s basically the Prime Minister.
Like the US Congress, the French Parliament is made up of two houses: the National Assembly (577 members serving 5 year terms) and the Senate (348 members serving 6 year terms). The National Assembly is responsible for passing domestic laws – from pensions and taxation to immigration and education – while the president determines the country’s foreign, Europe, and defense policy.
The National Assembly is elected directly by the people. The Senate is elected “indirectly.” What the pig does that mean? My best guess is that the French vote for them in a passive aggressive manner. “I feel that you are too stupid to vote for the right person. We won’t speak again until you have made the right choice.”
Last year Kermit (President Macron) upset the cast (populace) when he suggested they should raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. The cast went berserk. This is shocking to Americans who can’t retire until we look like this:
In the meantime, the far right, the National Rally, has been heckling and booing Kermit. They are loud and intrusive and make it impossible for Kermit to get anything done.
The National Rally hate the diversity of the cast. They hate bears holding hands with eagles. They vehemently hate non-muppets. They think they could put on a much better show. Why does Kermit care about what they think? Because one month ago there was an election for the EU Parliament and France elected a majority of these hecklers.
Why is the EU Parliament important? Because they have a hand in everything.
Dismayed at the idea of the National Rally having so much power in the EU and worried they would soon take over all branches of the French government, President Kermit-Macron did something crazy, y’all. He said, “Oh yeah? Then why don’t you come down here and show me!”
The audience was shocked. Why would Kermit endanger not only the show but his own job as host? But here was President Kermit’s thinking: let these bozos actually try to run the show for a while and the audience will see how much worse it will be. They will vote the old-white-racists critics out in no time!
For weeks the polls have shown that the far-right party was in the lead. Which is bonkers. The National Rally neé National Front was created in 1972 by Jean-Marie Le Pen and his buddy Pierre Bousqeu WHO WAS IN THE NAZI SS. Le Pen’s daughter Marine took over the party in 2012. She claimed she was trying to make the party more “mainstream" but let’s just say Steve Bannon once gave her party a “populist pep talk.”
In 2022 she stepped down and a 28-year-old racist man-child, Jordan Bardella, became president of the party. Bardella’s young age has helped strengthen the youth support of the National Rally.
France has many more parties than the US.
The far-right was ahead in the polls all month and their domination of Parliament seemed inevitable, which would have quickly made little Fozzie Bear/Jordan Bardella the new Prime Minister of France. It would have been the first far-right dominated government since the Vichy in WWII.
Instead a crazy thing happened. Leftist parties actually decided TO WORK TOGETHER. Imagine that. The far-left combined three parties to create the New Popular Front (NFP). This consolidated their votes. They also worked with Macron and his moderate Renaissance party to convince leftist candidates who were splitting the votes in their constituencies to drop out. This prevented the far-right from winning a majority of seats.
Angry Fozzie bear Jordan Bardella is whining about what he called the “unnatural alliance” between Macron and the leftists. It was a political partnership, Fozzie, not a gay marriage. Don’t get your pantalon in a twist.
The result was a big victory, but now the Parliament is in a strange place.
The three groups won roughly the same amount of seats, and the press is foreseeing a deadlocked Parliament. Having experienced little but the US government where the Congress is consistently at idealogical odds with our president, this doesn’t seem like a huge deal.
However, no one knows yet who will be the next Prime Minister. Macron has thus far refused to ask Scooter/Gabriel Atal to step down.
A hung parliament is unknown territory for modern France. The AP concluded that “The sharp polarization of French politics – especially in this torrid and quick campaign – is sure to complicate any effort to form a government. Racism and antisemitism marred the electoral campaign, along with Russian disinformation campaigns, and more than 50 candidates reported being physically attacked — highly unusual for France.”
The future is unknown, but as a part-time resident of France, I am incredibly relieved that we didn’t just buy property in a country following in the MAGA mold. If the far-right National Rally had won, I might have started to worry it was us.
Jusqu’à la prochaine fois,
Carolyn & Roberto
P.S.
I am sure many of you will have notes on this summary of events, but just remember I am an expert, and I will destroy you with my adherence to loose and easy facts.
This one is already posted on FB in the Americans Living the Dream in France group, too funny and spot on.
As an American ex-pat living in France, this is spot-on! Thanks for making French politics a little more accessible and a lot more humorous 🌻🤗🌻